Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 17,667
2 New Jersey 15,845
3 Massachusetts 11,509
4 Rhode Island 10,963
5 Connecticut 9,629
6 District of Columbia 9,188
7 Delaware 6,922
8 Louisiana 6,894
9 Illinois 6,563
10 Maryland 5,652
11 Michigan 4,800
12 Pennsylvania 4,796
13 Nebraska 4,515
14 South Dakota 4,140
15 Iowa 4,092
16 Indiana 3,813
17 Colorado 3,490
18 Mississippi 3,329
19 Georgia 3,137
20 Virginia 3,022
21 Kansas 2,537
22 New Mexico 2,485
23 Washington 2,429
24 New Hampshire 2,382
25 Tennessee 2,310
26 Minnesota 2,215
27 Ohio 2,160
28 Alabama 2,134
29 North Dakota 2,061
30 Nevada 2,048
31 Utah 2,013
32 Florida 1,951
33 Wisconsin 1,823
34 California 1,800
35 Missouri 1,649
36 Arizona 1,612
37 Kentucky 1,567
38 South Carolina 1,539
39 Vermont 1,485
40 North Carolina 1,468
41 Texas 1,460
42 Arkansas 1,379
43 Idaho 1,283
44 Oklahoma 1,195
45 Wyoming 1,166
46 Maine 1,098
47 Oregon 796
48 West Virginia 768
49 Puerto Rico 719
50 Alaska 523
51 Hawaii 440
52 Montana 431

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 196
2 Illinois 188
3 District of Columbia 180
4 Delaware 158
5 Maryland 139
6 New Jersey 137
7 Iowa 131
8 Connecticut 126
9 Massachusetts 125
10 South Dakota 101
11 Virginia 101
12 Minnesota 100
13 New York 88
14 Nebraska 86
15 Indiana 71
16 Pennsylvania 71
17 New Mexico 68
18 Mississippi 59
19 Georgia 57
20 New Hampshire 55
21 Alabama 54
22 Kansas 53
23 Tennessee 53
24 Colorado 48
25 Arkansas 46
26 North Dakota 46
27 Louisiana 45
28 Ohio 44
29 Michigan 40
30 Texas 40
31 Kentucky 39
32 Wisconsin 38
33 California 36
34 Utah 36
35 Arizona 35
36 North Carolina 32
37 Washington 32
38 Florida 29
39 Nevada 25
40 South Carolina 25
41 Missouri 21
42 Oklahoma 20
43 Maine 17
44 Oregon 15
45 Puerto Rico 13
46 Wyoming 12
47 Idaho 11
48 West Virginia 5
49 Vermont 3
50 Alaska 2
51 Hawaii 0
52 Montana 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,402
2 New Jersey 1,070
3 Connecticut 852
4 Massachusetts 745
5 Louisiana 490
6 District of Columbia 476
7 Michigan 468
8 Rhode Island 419
9 Pennsylvania 306
10 Maryland 290
11 Illinois 285
12 Delaware 243
13 Indiana 234
14 Colorado 175
15 Mississippi 153
16 Georgia 138
17 Washington 127
18 Ohio 122
19 Minnesota 108
20 Nevada 104
21 New Hampshire 104
22 New Mexico 104
23 Virginia 104
24 Iowa 91
25 Alabama 88
26 Missouri 86
27 Vermont 86
28 Florida 82
29 Arizona 77
30 Kentucky 74
31 California 73
32 Wisconsin 71
33 Oklahoma 70
34 South Carolina 68
35 Kansas 64
36 North Carolina 56
37 Nebraska 53
38 North Dakota 49
39 Maine 48
40 South Dakota 44
41 Texas 40
42 Idaho 38
43 Tennessee 38
44 Puerto Rico 35
45 West Virginia 32
46 Arkansas 31
47 Oregon 30
48 Utah 22
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Massachusetts 14
2 New Jersey 14
3 District of Columbia 11
4 New York 11
5 Connecticut 10
6 Rhode Island 8
7 Maryland 7
8 Illinois 6
9 Louisiana 6
10 Delaware 5
11 Indiana 4
12 Michigan 4
13 Mississippi 4
14 New Mexico 4
15 Alabama 3
16 Iowa 3
17 Minnesota 3
18 Pennsylvania 3
19 Colorado 2
20 Georgia 2
21 Missouri 2
22 New Hampshire 2
23 Ohio 2
24 Virginia 2
25 Washington 2
26 Arizona 1
27 California 1
28 Kansas 1
29 Kentucky 1
30 Nebraska 1
31 Nevada 1
32 North Carolina 1
33 North Dakota 1
34 South Carolina 1
35 South Dakota 1
36 Tennessee 1
37 Wisconsin 1
38 Alaska 0
39 Arkansas 0
40 Florida 0
41 Hawaii 0
42 Idaho 0
43 Maine 0
44 Montana 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 120,879 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 72,556 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 72,328 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 59,688 4 99
Cass Indiana 40,967 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 5,453 241 92
Richland South Carolina 2,754 575 81
Pierce Washington 1,913 811 74
Orange California 1,165 1197 61
York South Carolina 918 1424 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,813 2 99
Early Georgia 2,650 3 99
Chautauqua Kansas 2,462 4 99
Nassau New York 1,808 5 99
Richland South Carolina 142 468 85
Pierce Washington 70 788 74
Davidson Tennessee 53 938 70
Orange California 25 1273 59
York South Carolina 18 1386 55

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons